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Good Runs and Bad Runs.

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Advice from Matt Bisogno of www.geegeez.co.uk

 

I can’t remember where I first read this, but it has always stuck with me, and I want you to try to remember it. I’ll explain why in a minute.

“After a good run, expect a bad run. After a bad run, expect a good run”

Everything is cyclical: good times, bad times; night, day; yin, yang; blah, blah.

So here’s your problem: you receive yet another email declaring that System A or Tipster B has been on the most rip-roaring tsunami of winners that you surely must be a mug not to pay up and join up.

Well, er, no actually. What should you expect to happen? ”After a good run, expect a bad run.”

I don’t need to tell you that nobody is infallible, and alchemy was proven to be bunk in the middle ages when they were not very good at science.

If someone is telling you they’ve found a stack of winners… heck, even if you actually believethem!… the inevitability of a losing run in the near future is set in stone.

Let me put this another way: ”After a bad run, expect a good run”

It is the most contrarian logic, maybe, but if one of the systems in my backing portfolio (note, I wouldn’t do this with a laying system) has a losing run, I often increase my stakes.

Why? Because I know that if a system has made it into the portfolio, then I have confidence in the underlying logic. I also know something of the likely length of losing runs, based on the average odds and such like. So I know when to turn the taps on a little, and by how much.

This is the case with my own Winning Trainers (aka Dirty Two Dozen) as I write (22nd December). It’s on a losing run of 43. FORTY-THREE.

But that was after a period when it had four winning months and is still over 110 points up since going live at the start of August. And, as these runs are wont to do, I – and other Winning Trainers users – have suffered second places at 8/1, 11/1, 17/2, 11/1, and 16/1 in those 43 losers. Bummer. But that’s life.

I’ve increased my stakes for the second time in this run, and am looking forward to the inevitability that ‘after a bad run, expect a good run’.

May I suggest that the next time an email or mailing piece tells you of a phenomenal run, you consider what I’ve written here.

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