Breaking Down the Premier League Transfer Tax: Key Insights & Impacts (Part 2)

Exploring the Premier League ‘Transfer Tax’: Are Certain Leagues Riskier Sources for EPL Clubs?

The notion of the ‘Bundesliga Tax’—the idea that footballers coming from Germany’s top division often underperform in the Premier League—has become a repeated talking point. With notable cases such as Jadon Sancho and Timo Werner struggling to meet expectations, claims have emerged that players from the Bundesliga find it especially challenging to adjust to England’s top flight. This raises a broader question: Is there a league-specific ‘tax’ or risk associated with transfers into the Premier League? Using data from the 2021-22 campaign, this analysis takes a deep dive into how new signings from various leagues fared at mid-table EPL clubs, with the aim of uncovering trends, successes, and pitfalls in recruitment.

How We Analyzed Premier League Transfers

To ensure an unbiased overview, every signing—including permanent moves and loan-to-permanent deals—who debuted for their new club in the 2021-22 season was assessed. This encompasses summer arrivals, January acquisitions, and players previously bought but only featuring in Premier League action for the first time this campaign. To accurately gauge performance, our study aggregated player ratings from three leading stat-based sources—FotMob, WhoScored, and SofaScore—while also incorporating a unique ‘Role Continuity Evaluation System’ that evaluates players according to their tactical role and position. To avoid misleading outcomes from extremely limited minutes, only players with at least three Premier League appearances contributed to the final comparative conclusions by league.

Recognizing the Study’s Limitations

It is important to note some inherent limitations in the methodology. Ratings do not adjust for minutes played, meaning consistent starters will naturally accrue more data and potentially higher scores than fringe squad members. Additionally, the study does not attempt to contextualize improvement or decline relative to each player’s previous league performance. The focus remains strictly on first-season integration and success at their new club versus previous league sources. Another constraint is that player usage varies by club intent—starters are measured alongside rotational or backup signings, such as reserve goalkeepers, who inherently face different expectations and opportunities.

Aston Villa: High Volume, Modest Impact

Aston Villa recruited eight new faces during the season, creating significant competition for starting spots. Despite this wave of signings, standout performances were scarce. Players such as Philippe Coutinho, Emi Buendía, and Danny Ings sporadically displayed their attacking prowess but could not maintain consistency. Leon Bailey, plagued by injury, struggled most to deliver value. The data suggests that large recruitment drives often dilute individual impact and complicate squad cohesion, reinforcing the argument that focusing on targeted signings is more effective than wholesale changes.

Brentford: One Inspired Addition Changes Everything

Brentford’s recruitment ahead of their debut Premier League campaign was largely unconvincing, with many acquisitions making limited impacts. However, the late-season arrival of Christian Eriksen provided tremendous value, lifting the average contribution of the club’s new signings. While Brentford’s connections to and affinity for the Danish Superliga align well with their club profile, the data points toward mixed results from this recruitment strategy. The Danish league, in particular, did not emerge as a consistent source of Premier League-ready talent.

Brighton & Hove Albion: Maximizing Value with Fewer Signings

Brighton, under Graham Potter, exemplified strategic recruitment, limiting themselves to just four new signings: Marc Cucurella, Moisés Caicedo, Shane Duffy, and Enock Mwepu. Their impact was substantial, especially Cucurella and Caicedo, who not only integrated well but became central figures. Brighton’s focus on fewer, well-chosen signings enabled smoother squad integration and gave newcomers the platform to thrive, reinforcing the benefits of quality over quantity.

Crystal Palace: Championship Talent Shines in the Premier League

Crystal Palace showed that the English Championship is a goldmine for top-flight recruitment. The arrivals of Marc Guehi and Michael Olise, coupled with smart loan acquisitions like Conor Gallagher and Joachim Andersen, contributed to a highly successful transfer window. The familiarity with English football culture and playing style clearly aided swift adaptation, supporting the case for prioritizing domestic recruits, especially from the Championship, when looking to refresh a mid-table squad.

Leicester City: Ambitious Plans, Underwhelming Returns

Leicester’s transfer ambitions suggested another push for European competition, but reality fell short. New arrivals Patson Daka, Boubakary Soumaré, Jannik Vestergaard, and Ryan Bertrand all had mixed results, with only Daka hinting at future promise. This campaign highlights the dangers of recruitment that either misreads squad needs or fails to integrate signings into the team dynamic, and it demonstrates that simply acquiring known Premier League quantities is no guarantee for success.

Newcastle United: Smart, Immediate Upgrades

Buoyed by fresh investment, Newcastle pinpointed clear squad weaknesses and recruited accordingly. Every new signing, whether from abroad (Kieran Trippier from La Liga, Bruno Guimaraes from Ligue 1) or domestically (Dan Burn, Matt Targett, Chris Wood, and Joe Willock from within the Premier League), played an instrumental role, proving that focused, needs-based recruitment can drive substantial short-term improvements even amid a larger team rebuild.

Wolves: Portuguese Pathway Bears Fruit

Wolves continued to benefit from strong ties to Portugal’s Primeira Liga, with three impactful signings (Jose Sa, Toti, and Chiquinho) bolstering their squad. Sa, in particular, emerged as a key upgrade in goal. Hee-Chan Hwang and Francisco Trincao also contributed, but injuries and limited roles contained their influence. Wolves’ experience demonstrates the reliability of the Portuguese league as a productive source of Premier League talent, especially when aligned to the club’s playing style.

Comparing Team Performance: Integration and League Progress

The following table summarizes each club’s integration of new signings—measured as an average performance score—and their number of new arrivals:

Notably, clubs making fewer but more targeted signings consistently achieved higher integration scores and improved their league positions. Brighton, with the fewest new arrivals, ranked highest, while Aston Villa and Leicester, with greater squad churn, saw diminished returns on the pitch.

Focus on Quality Over Quantity: The ‘Less Is More’ Principle

Data trends reinforce the belief that targeted, high-quality signings offer the best prospects for success. Integrating a smaller group of new players allows for more attention to individual adaptation and role clarity. Aston Villa’s disappointing average highlights the risks of bringing in too many players simultaneously, while clubs like Brighton, Newcastle, and Palace benefited from focused and role-specific recruitment.

Evaluating League ‘Taxes’: Best Sources for Premier League Talent

Which leagues should Premier League mid-table clubs target for the best chance of transfer success? The following table summarizes the average performance scores for each league of origin, along with the standout performer among new signings:

The data reveals that signings from Serie A, La Liga, and the Portuguese Primeira Liga have yielded the most success for these mid-table clubs. Premier League and EFL Championship recruits also adapt quickly, while the German Bundesliga, Danish Superliga, and Austrian Bundesliga produced less impactful first-season performers.

Key Takeaways for Premier League Clubs

– **Prioritize Quality:** Smaller batches of targeted transfers lead to higher integration and on-field productivity.
– **Mind the League Source:** Players from Serie A, La Liga, and the Primeira Liga have demonstrated strong adaptation, while the Bundesliga risks remain real.
– **Consider Domestic Talent:** The EFL Championship continues to offer players well-suited for the physical and cultural demands of the league.
– **Age and Opportunity Matter:** Signings aged 20-24 and those brought in as immediate starters show a higher chance of successful adaptation and contribution.

Conclusion: Is the Bundesliga Tax Real?

Our comprehensive look at fourteen mid-table EPL clubs supports the theory that some leagues, notably the Bundesliga, pose a more significant risk for Premier League recruiters. Bundesliga signings have, on average, struggled to hit the ground running compared to peers from Spain, Italy, Portugal, or even England’s own second tier. Meanwhile, targeted signings of the right profile—young, hungry, and positioned to start—offer the best insurance for transfer success.

This analysis lays the groundwork for a broader discussion, to be continued with a review of relegation-threatened clubs’ transfer strategies and their outcomes. Understanding these nuances helps clubs make smarter decisions in the ever-competitive world of the Premier League transfer market.