2024 US Election Betting: Will History Repeat Itself?
Early Excitement Mounts for the 2024 Presidential Race
Though still years away, the 2024 US presidential election has already begun to dominate the global betting landscape. In 2020, a staggering £1.6 billion was wagered on the outcome when Donald Trump faced Joe Biden—a record-breaking total, dwarfing the previous 2016 contest by more than eight times. With anticipation high and interest only expected to increase, another betting record could be set when Americans next head to the polls.
A Potential Biden-Trump Rematch: Historical Perspective
Rematches in US presidential elections are exceptionally unusual. If President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump square off in 2024, it would mark the first direct rematch since 1956. That year, Dwight Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson for the second consecutive time. Looking further back, William McKinley repeated his victory over William Jennings Bryan in 1900, following another rematch involving Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison in the late 19th century.
The likelihood of a Biden-Trump repeat is significant. Both men have given strong signals about running again. While Biden’s age and declining approval ratings have fueled speculation about his intentions, stepping aside would make him the first sitting president to decline a re-election bid since Lyndon Johnson in 1968.
While betting exchanges quote differing odds for each candidate, predicting the outcome so far in advance is risky. Political events, the emergence of new contenders, and the unpredictability of party primaries mean the field is far from settled.
Betting Markets on Candidate Declarations and Surprises
One increasingly popular market is wagering on whether and when specific figures will officially announce their candidacy. For example, odds have been set for whether Trump will file his candidacy statement before 2023, with some markets predicting him to delay his announcement.
There’s also a growing list of unconventional contenders. Hillary Clinton and actor Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson both receive similar odds to run, while Fox News host Tucker Carlson and Ivanka Trump are also available in speculation-driven markets. For more audacious bettors, even Oprah Winfrey’s longshot odds remain on the board—a reflection of just how wide open and unpredictable 2024 could be.
Challenges Facing Joe Biden’s Path to Re-Election
Assessing the odds for a Biden-Trump rematch also requires examining the challenges facing the current president. Joe Biden’s approval numbers have dipped, and his legislative priorities have struggled to gain momentum. The Democratic Party is likely to lose control of Congress in the mid-terms, which could increase pressure on Biden to step aside and even trigger a primary challenge from within his own ranks.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s popularity remains low, leaving the door open for other Democrats to emerge. Names frequently mentioned as potential challengers or nominees include Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar. Michelle Obama’s name also generates speculation, but there’s little evidence she will actually enter the race.
Whoever the nominee, maintaining the diverse coalition that propelled Biden’s victory in 2020 will be a formidable task, especially against a revitalized Republican opposition.
Why Republicans Appear Well-Positioned—But with Caveats
Despite the temptation to back Donald Trump, some analysts urge caution. Trump energizes not only Republican supporters but also opposition among Democrats and independents, potentially increasing Democratic voter turnout if he tops the Republican ticket again. If Trump declares his candidacy, it could also encourage Biden to pursue a second term regardless of political headwinds.
Legal challenges also present unique obstacles for Trump. Investigations into the Trump Organization’s business practices and election-related activities could create complications. New York Attorney General Letitia James and other authorities continue to pursue both civil and criminal probes, including a deep dive into financial records and the aftermath of the 2020 election.
On social media, NY AG James has publicly stated the seriousness of these inquiries:
We are taking legal action to force Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Jr., and Ivanka Trump to comply with our investigation into the Trump Organization’s financial dealings. No one in this country can pick and choose if and how the law applies to them.
— NY AG James
We have uncovered significant evidence indicating that the Trump Organization used fraudulent and misleading asset valuations on multiple properties to obtain economic benefits, including loans, insurance coverage, and tax deductions for years.
— NY AG James
Legal Troubles and Indictment Betting Opportunities
Beyond state-level probes, the ongoing investigations into Trump’s involvement in the January 6th events, as well as possible efforts to overturn key state election results, introduce additional uncertainty. The infamous call to Georgia’s secretary of state and reports of attempts to influence the Electoral College could result in further criminal scrutiny. For those interested, there are active betting markets on whether Trump will face indictment within specific timeframes.
Republican Party Dynamics: Is Trump’s Hold Slipping?
Although past scandals have failed to significantly diminish Trump’s base, 2024 could bring new risks for the Republican Party. Other potential candidates, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, are seen by many pollsters as potentially stronger general election contenders.
Internal party opposition may also intensify, with some former Trump allies openly criticizing him. His stance on issues like Covid-19 vaccines and recent interviews have created friction within his own base.
If Trump maintains a focus on challenging electoral processes or alleging widespread fraud, the party risks being forced to frequently address questions about the foundations of American democracy throughout the 2024 campaign. This climate of contention and uncertainty may not benefit Republican prospects in November.
Summary: Strategic Takeaways for Political Bettors
Given the volatility and number of variables at play, predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election remains challenging. While Republicans appear well-placed to regain the White House, Trump’s legal and political baggage introduces significant uncertainty. On the Democratic side, a changing field and internal divisions could further complicate their path to victory.
Key insights for political bettors:
– It’s too early to confidently back likely rematch scenarios—many factors could shift.
– Republicans have a strategic advantage, but Trump’s candidacy could carry unique risks.
– Alternative Democratic contenders, such as Elizabeth Warren or Amy Klobuchar, offer high-reward, low-probability bets for those seeking value at longer odds.
– Ongoing investigations into both major parties should be closely monitored, as legal developments could dramatically affect the race.
As the field develops and the campaign intensifies, savvy bettors will keep a close eye on emerging candidates, key political events, and evolving legal stories that could reshape the 2024 election landscape.
