How Transfer Taxes Are Shaping the Premier League: Insights & Trends (Part 3)

Exploring the ‘Bundesliga Tax’: Premier League Transfer Performance and Insights

The phrase “Bundesliga Tax” has become common among Premier League fans and pundits, describing a perceived trend where players signed from Germany’s top division often struggle to match their previous form in England. Headline moves like Jadon Sancho and Timo Werner are cited as evidence, but is this phenomenon unique to the Bundesliga, or do players from other leagues face similar adaptation issues? Drawing on comprehensive data from the 2021-22 Premier League season, this article analyzes the impact of incoming signings—especially among relegation-threatened teams—to uncover patterns in player performance and transfer strategy.

Evaluating Player Adaptation: Scope and Methodology

This analysis focuses on Premier League clubs that finished between 15th and 20th in the 2021-22 season, reviewing every new signing made in both the summer and winter transfer windows. Players included in this study range from permanent arrivals to loans and those whose loan move was made permanent, as long as they featured in at least one Premier League game during the season (excluding those with fewer than three appearances for averaging purposes).

To ensure a balanced perspective, we sourced player performance data from three established statistical platforms—FotMob, WhoScored, and SofaScore—alongside a custom Role Continuity Evaluation System. This approach blends quantitative metrics with qualitative assessments based on role expectations, acknowledging differences in how certain data sets rate positions like goalkeepers and substitutes.

Study Boundaries and Considerations

While the dataset offers valuable insights, it’s crucial to note several limitations:

– **No per-90 adjustment:** Players with more minutes tend to receive higher statistical averages, potentially undervaluing impact substitutes or those making fewer appearances.
– **No year-on-year comparison:** The analysis looks only at performance in the debut Premier League season, not whether a player improved or declined compared to their previous league.
– **Role and club intentions:** Our system accounts for a player’s on-field role but not the specific plans their new club had for them (such as being a rotational backup versus a nailed-on starter), which can affect playing time and performance data.

With these factors in mind, let’s explore how the bottom six Premier League teams fared in the transfer market and which leagues provided the best value.

Burnley: Pragmatism Over Big Spending

Burnley adopted their usual approach of modest investment and targeted recruitment, focusing on Championship standouts like Nathan Collins and Connor Roberts. Both made important contributions as the season progressed. While Maxwel Cornet and Wout Weghorst added depth to the attack, neither was able to significantly alter Burnley’s fate, with Weghorst representing the highest-profile Bundesliga import for relegation battlers.

Everton: Early Promise, Mixed Outcomes

Everton’s start to the season was buoyed by the arrivals of Demarai Gray and Andros Townsend, both of whom performed well initially. The January additions of Donny van de Beek and Dele Alli promised much but delivered little consistent improvement. Vitalii Mykolenko, signed from Dynamo Kyiv, became the exception—emerging as a key performer during a relegation battle that went down to the wire.

Leeds United: Lean Business, Decent Results

Leeds made only a handful of signings, with Daniel James’ arrival from Manchester United being the most high-profile. Despite injuries and inconsistency elsewhere, Leeds’ conservative transfer window arguably stabilized the team, with their limited new arrivals contributing positively in their respective roles.

Norwich City: Quantity Over Quality

Norwich took the opposite approach, making ten senior signings in an attempt to rebuild for Premier League survival. Despite numbers, the overall impact was minimal, with several players from the Bundesliga—including Milot Rashica and Josh Sargent—failing to stand out. This underscored the challenge of integrating many new faces at once.

Southampton: Focusing on Potential

Southampton targeted players with future potential—Tino Livramento became a key player, while Armando Broja (on loan from Chelsea) and others rotated through the squad. The club’s measured business saw reasonable integration, but struggles to consistently improve the first team remained.

Watford: High Turnover with Mixed Returns

Watford’s strategy of bringing in 13 players brought fleeting highlights, such as the impact of Dennis and Kamara. However, the club’s lack of transfer cohesion contributed to a tumultuous campaign, with most additions failing to make a lasting difference and several departing before season’s end.

Bottom Six Comparison: Transfer Efficacy Rankings

Analysis shows a clear trend: clubs making fewer changes typically achieved higher average performance from their new recruits, suggesting that cohesion and targeted reinforcements outperformed scatter-gun strategies.

Which Leagues Should Premier League Teams Scout?

When breaking down the data by the source league of incoming transfers, certain competitions stand out as more reliable pipelines for quality talent.

The Belgian Pro League, although represented by few players, proved a solid source for game-changers like Emmanuel Dennis. England’s second tier (Championship) and France’s Ligue 1 also provided strong value for money, particularly for teams fighting to avoid relegation. However, signings from leagues such as the Russian Premier League, Greek Super League, and Turkish Super Lig delivered lower average returns. As for the Bundesliga, the numbers support the idea that its imports underperformed compared to most other major talent sources.

Key Findings and Strategic Takeaways

– **Bundesliga Challenge:** The data confirms that players arriving from Germany’s top league, especially for struggling teams, consistently underperformed compared to their peers from other sources—a measurable ‘Bundesliga Tax.’
– **Transfer Volume:** Clubs adding fewer new faces saw better average results—suggesting effective integration and squad harmony outweighed mass recruitment.
– **Targets for Scouting:** Belgian Pro League, Championship, and Ligue 1 players held up well to Premier League demands. In contrast, teams should be cautious about overinvesting in players