Key Political Betting Opportunities to Watch in 2022

Political betting markets promise high stakes and big drama in 2022

Overview: Why 2022 Is a Milestone for Political Bettors

2022 brings an array of high-profile elections and leadership contests across key countries, offering political bettors a wealth of dynamic markets. While 2021 featured relatively limited action, this year is set to deliver constant excitement, from pivotal US midterm races to leadership battles in Europe and major contests in South America and Asia.

US Midterms: Challenging Landscape for Democrats

November will see the United States hold its midterm elections, with all House of Representatives seats up for grabs, a third of the Senate, and numerous governorships at stake. The political environment looks especially tough for President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party. Biden’s approval rating has dipped below 45 percent, a stark decline from his numbers post-election.

The Democrats recently suffered disappointing results, with an unexpected loss in Virginia and a tighter-than-expected win in New Jersey. These outcomes highlight the difficulty of maintaining a fragile coalition in government, particularly without Donald Trump on the opposing ballot as a rallying point.

Republicans are now widely favored to reclaim control of both chambers. In the betting markets, they can be found at short odds to take the Senate, while combinations such as winning both the House and Senate are also trading strongly among punters.

Spotlight on Primaries: The Next Move for Big Names

Before the general elections, primary contests will shape the field in critical races. One of the most intriguing markets centers on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) and her potential political trajectory. Current odds suggest less than a 50 percent chance that she will run again in her NY-14 congressional district, raising questions about possible moves toward the Senate or even a future presidential campaign.

Other notable primaries include Pennsylvania’s Senate race, where Mehmet Oz—known as “Dr Oz”—is vying for the Republican slot, competing with frontrunner David McCormick.

Georgia Governor Race: High Stakes and Star Power

Georgia’s gubernatorial race has all the makings of a headline-grabber. While Stacey Abrams is set to represent the Democrats, the Republican side is marked by a fierce contest between incumbent Brian Kemp and challenger David Perdue, with former President Trump endorsing Perdue amid ongoing party tensions.

A Republican primary victory for Kemp could set up a dramatic general election and might even launch Abrams as a 2024 presidential contender. Betting markets currently present compelling odds on Kemp, who remains strong locally despite Trump’s outspoken criticism.

UK Politics: Will Boris Johnson Remain Prime Minister?

The United Kingdom offers another hotbed of political betting interest as Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces plummeting approval ratings and intensifying opposition both externally and from within his own party. Following a significant by-election loss and narrowing poll margins against Labour, Johnson’s hold on leadership appears increasingly unsteady.

The Conservative Party’s history of replacing unpopular leaders, along with rising inflation and tax hikes, adds further pressure. Early betting markets favor Johnson’s exit before the next general election, with odds reflecting skepticism about his longevity. As for his replacement, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss lead the early speculation, though history warns against assuming early frontrunners will prevail.

Europe in Focus: French and Hungarian Elections

April sees France go to the polls, with President Emmanuel Macron poised as the candidate to beat. Betting markets indicate Macron is well-placed to secure re-election—especially if he faces a far-right candidate in the second round, where moderate voters are likely to coalesce behind him.

However, a showdown with center-right Republican candidate Valérie Pécresse is forecasted to be more competitive.

Hungary’s general election features Prime Minister Viktor Orban defending his position against a broad coalition of opposition parties. Peter Marki-Zay, a conservative outsider, heads the opposition, with international attention on Hungary’s shifting political dynamics.

International Highlights: Asia and Latin America’s Big Races

Asia’s biggest political event is the Philippines presidential election, where famed boxer Manny Pacquiao is running, though the betting momentum has shifted away from him. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is now considered the leading candidate, according to most bookmakers, with the vote set for May 9.

October will bring Brazil’s pivotal presidential election. Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is making a comeback after seeing previous corruption convictions overturned. He leads the odds in most markets, with incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and former judge Sergio Moro trailing. Disparities in market pricing reflect some uncertainty—likely due to concerns over possible election disputes or unrest—but Lula’s chances are forecasted to tighten as election day draws near.

Strategic Betting Insights for 2022

For political bettors aiming to capitalize on global election drama this year, several key opportunities stand out:

– Georgia’s Republican gubernatorial primary: Brian Kemp is a value play given his solid base and resilience against Trump’s opposition.
– UK political turnover: Betting against Boris Johnson’s longevity as Prime Minister in 2022 remains attractive amid mounting internal strife.
– Presidential races in Brazil: Lula da Silva’s candidacy represents a notable value, particularly when market odds diverge.

Summary: Where to Focus Your 2022 Political Bets

2022 promises to be one of the most action-filled years for political betting. The shifting landscapes in the US, UK, Europe, and beyond mean that markets will move quickly as news develops and candidates’ fortunes rise and fall. Bettors should remain agile, stay informed on the latest polling and political developments, and look for value where public sentiment and media narratives may have skewed the odds.

As always, review the latest data and market movements before making your picks. For more up-to-date insights and recommendations, be sure to monitor news sources and expert commentary in the months ahead.