Premier League Managers: Who’s Most at Risk of Being Sacked?
The Premier League is renowned for its intensity, not just on the field but in the boardroom. Just a handful of matches into the new season, Manchester United bid farewell to Erik Ten Hag, ending his term despite a contract renewal only months earlier—a stark reminder of the harsh realities in modern football management.
As the race for the top and the scrap at the bottom become clearer, questions loom: whose positions are secure, and which managers are walking the tightrope? Through the analysis of 19 key factors, this comprehensive index reveals which Premier League bosses face the greatest risk of losing their jobs in the near future.
How the Premier League Manager Hot Seat Index Was Created
This ranking draws on a broad set of performance and context-focused indicators to estimate each manager’s job security. The index covers crucial aspects such as:
– Premier League win percentage and team position changes season-on-season
– Record in domestic and European cup competitions
– Squad investment and transfer spending
– Club history and frequency of managerial changes
– Online fan sentiment analysis
– Recent team form and points per game
With weekly updates reflecting the most recent five matches, each manager earns a Hot Seat Score out of 100. Higher scores indicate greater instability and a higher likelihood of leaving before season’s end. At the point of his sacking, Erik ten Hag recorded a notable 93.1 out of 100 on this scale.
The Managers Most Likely to Face the Sack
Key Premier League Managers Under Threat
Sean Dyche – Everton
Everton’s struggles persist under Sean Dyche, who tops the risk chart. The club has scored among the fewest goals in the league, remaining just outside the relegation positions. With a potential club takeover nearing completion, new owners could opt for a complete overhaul, making Dyche’s future at Goodison Park far from certain.
Russell Martin – Southampton FC
Following a demoralizing defeat to previously winless Wolves, Southampton sits at the foot of the table. Martin’s team has picked up just one win in the campaign, with four losses in their last five outings. The squad’s youth and cost-effectiveness may earn him a longer leash, but without an immediate turnaround, a leadership change is a real possibility.
Oliver Glasner – Crystal Palace
Palace supporters had high hopes after last season’s promising close, but the club has secured only seven points from 11 games, leaving them nervously eyeing relegation. A challenging fixture list leading up to the holiday period—featuring Newcastle, Manchester City, and Arsenal—could decide Glasner’s fate. A failure to earn points, particularly in winnable matches, might bring about managerial upheaval by the new year.
Julen Lopetegui – West Ham United
Julen Lopetegui faces mounting pressure as West Ham sits precariously close to the drop zone. With the oldest squad in the division and one of the costliest payrolls, results have not justified the investment. Lopetegui needs to rejuvenate the Hammers’ performances if he is to see out his tenure, let alone plan a long-term rebuild.
Ange Postecoglou – Tottenham Hotspur
A shock defeat to Ipswich has seen Postecoglou’s position scrutinized for the first time this term. Despite a previous top-five finish and public backing from the board, Spurs have struggled to build momentum, matching their number of wins with as many losses. The club’s heavy financial outlay—£1.4 million per goal last season—means that further underperformance could have consequences for Postecoglou’s future in North London.
Which Premier League Clubs Have the Most Negative Fans?
A manager’s fate increasingly hinges on the mood among a club’s supporters. Using AI sentiment analysis, data from the 100 busiest Reddit threads per club over the last year were studied to gauge the least satisfied fanbases.
– Everton’s supporters top the list for discontent, with 46% of comments registering as negative—likely influenced by unprecedented points deductions and a low Premier League win rate since 2022.
– West Ham fans are not far behind, with 37.4% of online posts reflecting dissatisfaction, possibly linked to recent turbulence in the dugout and doubts over new managerial appointments.
– Tottenham rank third in negativity, as the loss of talisman Harry Kane and lackluster on-pitch displays leave fans longing for a new era of excitement.
Data Sources and Ranking Methodology
The ranking is based on a comprehensive analysis of club management and team performance, including:
- Remaining contract duration for each manager
- Current team’s Premier League win record (excluding those new in post for 24/25)
- Comparison of team finishes between last and current seasons
- Major cup progression—both domestic and European
- Managers’ historical cup achievements
- Years elapsed since last major club trophy
- Average age of the active squad
- Transfer fees expended since the 23/24 season (GBP equivalent)
- Current season’s wage bill
- Frequency of permanent managerial changes in the last decade
- Ratio of negative fan comments online
- Cost per goal based on last season’s payroll and competitive goals scored
A normalized scoring formula rates each factor, producing an aggregate Hot Seat Score. Certain variables—such as contract length, years since the previous major club win, and squad age—are weighted at half-value. Data labels for cup progress reduce scores at each stage of advancement. Where historical data is not available (for newly promoted clubs), a neutral rating is applied to ensure fairness.
Fan sentiment figures are generated via AI analysis of highly active Reddit threads, with language models scoring comment positivity or negativity on a 0-1 scale.
Disclaimer and Data Usage Policy
The materials and graphics published in this feature are available for non-commercial use, provided attribution is given with a direct link to the original page for credit.
Conclusion
In a league where patience is famously short, the Premier League Manager Hot Seat Index offers insight into which clubs could opt for change next. As new results come in and seasons develop, expect further movement in the rankings—proving that, in football management, nobody’s job is ever truly safe.
