Raphaël Guerreiro: Why He Would Thrive at Manchester City
Introduction: A Transformative Season for Guerreiro and Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund experienced one of their most thrilling campaigns in recent memory, challenging Bayern Munich for the Bundesliga title until the last whistle. Central to their resurgence was Raphaël Guerreiro, whose blend of tactical intelligence and exceptional versatility made him indispensable. The 29-year-old Portuguese international adapted seamlessly between roles—operating as a creative midfielder, an inverted full-back, and even finding success playing higher up the pitch. Despite Dortmund’s persistent issues at full-back since Achraf Hakimi’s departure, contract uncertainty has placed Guerreiro’s future in question.
Guerreiro’s Value: Contributions and Versatility
Throughout the 2022–23 season, Guerreiro directly contributed to 16 of Dortmund’s 83 Bundesliga goals, making him the top assist provider in the league. His adaptability enabled Dortmund to use him as a playmaking ‘10’, a left-sided ‘8’, a conventional left-back, and a left-winger as needed. When evaluating both his attacking return and flexibility, it’s clear why many consider him one of the club’s most valuable assets over the past decade.
Could Manchester City Be the Perfect Fit?
Should Guerreiro decide to embark on a new challenge, Manchester City emerges as an ideal destination. Under Pep Guardiola, City values players with supreme tactical awareness and positional flexibility—traits that Guerreiro exhibits in abundance. City’s attacking patterns, especially their frequent use of the 3-2-4-1 structure, suit Guerreiro’s strengths. He is adept at moving inside from full-back positions—mirroring how John Stones or Rico Lewis step into midfield to partner Rodri—a role Guerreiro has occupied regularly for Dortmund.
Technical and Tactical Strengths: Passing, Progression, and Vision
Guerreiro’s standout quality lies in his progressive passing and ability to unlock defenses. Statistically, he ranks among the top 5% for progressive passes and top 4% for passes into the penalty area among players in his position (according to FBRef). His completion rate for forward and progressive passes hovers around 80%, an impressive figure given his ambitious passing style. Surrounded by City’s possession-dominant system and intricate combinations, Guerreiro’s creativity could reach new heights.
Familiarity and Integration: Winning Mindset and Connections
City’s squad features several players with whom Guerreiro already shares a background. As a key part of Portugal’s Euro 2016 triumph and a DFB-Pokal winner with Dortmund, he brings a winning mentality. He is also familiar with Manchester City’s Rúben Dias and Bernardo Silva, and former Dortmund colleagues İlkay Gündoğan, Manuel Akanji, and Erling Haaland—helping ease any transition both on and off the pitch.
Optimizing Guerreiro’s Role: Maximizing Strengths, Mitigating Weaknesses
While Guerreiro excels in counter-pressing and anticipation, his weaknesses are evident in defensive duels and aerial battles, particularly when positioned as an orthodox left-back. Pep Guardiola’s tactical setup often shields such players by placing them in advanced midfield roles or using inverted full-backs as the first line of defensive pressure, allowing specialized defenders to handle direct threats. This environment would allow Guerreiro to focus on playmaking and progression, while minimizing scenarios that expose his defensive vulnerabilities.
Attacking Impact: Creativity in the Final Third
Guerreiro fits the mold of an attack-oriented, possession-based full-back but thrives even more prominently in central midfield roles. While primarily deployed at left-back, his performances as a central midfielder were particularly influential—netting three goals and providing four assists in just five matches in that role during the season. His aptitude for executing ‘smart passes’—splitting defenders through intricate balls or unorthodox techniques—led to a 61% success rate in these high-difficulty actions, the highest among inverted full-backs in the database referenced.
In terms of concrete output, only Julian Brandt surpassed his combined goals and assists for Dortmund in 2022–23, proving Guerreiro’s vital importance to the side. Across Europe’s top five leagues, he produced more direct goal contributions than any other full-back in that period.
Physical Profile and Adaptation to the Premier League
While Guerreiro’s small frame may pose challenges in the Premier League’s physically demanding environment, his agility and ball-handling compensate in many situations. He wins fewer than 40% of attacking duels, and his dribbling numbers are comparable to John Stones, highlighting technical prowess over brute strength. To accommodate his skill set, City could minimize his involvement in direct physical battles and keep his primary tasks focused around intelligent movement, quick combination play, and spatial awareness.
Defensive Profile: Anticipation and Defensive Actions
Defensively, Guerreiro distinguishes himself through anticipation rather than raw physicality. He ranks among the top 12% for interceptions, even within a dominant Dortmund side, and surpasses City’s players in possession-adjusted interceptions and successful defensive actions per 90 minutes. Although he is less effective in 1v1 and aerial scenarios, modern tactical systems increasingly cater to such specialists by placing them in midfield or shielded roles.
How City Could Get the Best from Guerreiro
Guardiola’s approach prioritizes maximizing a player’s unique attributes while constructing systems that compensate for their weaknesses. For Guerreiro, the key would be a fixed role in midfield or as an inverted full-back, with robust teammates covering transitions behind him—thus freeing him to influence the game creatively and avoid situations that highlight his defensive limitations.
Summary: Guerreiro’s Unique Suitability for Manchester City
Raphaël Guerreiro would offer Manchester City a host of advantages, including:
– A proven track record as an inverted full-back and multi-positional asset
– The tactical intelligence and movement needed in Guardiola’s fluid system
– Direct experience with existing City players, fostering easier adaptation
– Elite creativity and progressive passing, particularly in advanced roles
– High-level experience and a winner’s mentality from both club and international stages
Given the opportunity to secure him on a free transfer, his signing should be a serious consideration for City’s recruitment strategy. Meanwhile, for Dortmund, allowing such a player to leave without compensation would represent a significant loss.
Conclusion
Raphaël Guerreiro stands out as a unique blend of playmaker, tactician, and versatile contributor. While his time at Dortmund may be drawing to a close, the structure and culture at Manchester City would enable him to flourish. If City act decisively, they may secure one of Europe’s most adaptable and creative footballers without a transfer fee—a rare opportunity at the elite level.
